Decision details

This report provides an update to Cabinet on the county council's 2023/24 revenue and capital financial position, as at the end of November 2023.

The forecast outturn position is based on activity and expenditure and income levels up to the end of November 2023, with assumptions made as to the levels expected in the final quarter of the financial year. This is particularly difficult to predict with accuracy across adult social care as demand can fluctuate significantly over the winter period.

Whilst a small overspend of £5.8m (0.56% of the budget) is still forecast on the revenue budget, the overspend position is within £0.1m of the forecast reported for Quarter 2. Whilst there is not a significant change in the forecast overall, there are some significant movements across services, with details outlined in Appendix 'A'.

In February 2023 an indicative Capital Delivery Programme of £239.859m was agreed with Cabinet. This delivery programme figure has been revisited and, following confirmation of the final 2022/23 slipped delivery figures, subsequently approved additions and re-profiling of the programme have decreased the in-year programme to £159.123m. The forecast outturn position at Quarter 3 is spend of £153.148m, a variance of £5.975m (-3.75%). The variance is primarily the product of delayed delivery on some agreed schemes which has been offset where possible through earlier than originally planned delivery on some agreed schemes within the multi-year programme.

In summary:

(i)  The 2023/24 revenue forecast outturn is £1,044.874m, representing a projected overspend of £5.828m (0.56%) of the agreed budget.

(ii)  The 2023/24 amended programme is £159.123m with expenditure to date totalling £117.119m, which is c74% of the total delivery programme.

The Cabinet approved the recommendation(s) as set out in the report.